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Individual-based models of infectious disease dynamics commonly use network structures to represent human interactions. Network structures can vary in complexity, from single-layered with homogeneous mixing to multi-layered with clustering and layer-specific contact weights. Here we assessed policy-relevant consequences of network choice by simulating different network structures within an established individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine prevents millions of clinical malaria cases in children younger than 5 years in Africa's Sahel region. However, Plasmodium falciparum parasites partially resistant to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (with quintuple mutations) potentially threaten the protective effectiveness of SMC. We evaluated the spread of quintuple-mutant parasites and the clinical consequences.
In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health.
Malaria is a leading cause of death in school-aged children in sub-Saharan Africa, and non-fatal chronic malaria infections are associated with anaemia, school absence and decreased learning, preventing children from reaching their full potential. Malaria chemoprevention has led to substantial reductions in malaria in younger children in sub-Saharan Africa.
Malaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps of malaria prevalence, incidence, and mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease and to inform strategic malaria control efforts. We present the latest such maps, the first since 2019, which cover the years 2000–22. The maps are accompanied by administrative-level summaries and include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on malaria burden.
In 2022, the World Health Organization extended their guidelines for perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) from infants to children up to 24 months old. However, evidence for PMC's public health impact is primarily limited to children under 15 months. Further research is needed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PMC, and the added benefit of further age-expansion. We integrated an individual-based model of malaria with pharmacological models of drug action to address these questions for PMC and a proposed age-expanded schedule (referred as PMC+, for children 03-36 months).
When models are used to inform decision-making, both their strengths and limitations must be considered. Using malaria as an example, we explain how and why models are limited and offer guidance for ensuring a model is well-suited for its intended purpose.
Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine.
In this project, we will generate model-driven insights to accelerate and optimise how next-generation malaria vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are developed, evaluated, and deployed, across different age groups, use-cases, and transmission settings.