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Comodity forecastingProject description This project support the development of 10-year global forecasts of nets, insecticides, diagnostics, and treatments for malaria
Research
Spatial codistribution of HIV, tuberculosis and malaria in EthiopiaHIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria are the three most important infectious diseases in Ethiopia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the spatial codistribution of these diseases is critical for designing geographically targeted and integrated disease control programmes. This study investigated the spatial overlap and drivers of HIV, TB and malaria prevalence in Ethiopia.
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Gaussian random fields: with and without covariancesWe begin with isotropic Gaussian random fields, and show how the Bochner-Godement theorem gives a natural way to describe their covariance structure. We continue with a study of Matérn processes on Euclidean space, spheres, manifolds and graphs, using Bessel potentials and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs).
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Data utilisation and factors influencing the performance of the health management information system in TanzaniaHealth Management Information System (HMIS) is a set of data regularly collected at health care facilities to meet the needs of statistics on health services. This study aimed to determine the utilisation of HMIS data and factors influencing the health system's performance at the district and primary health care facility levels in Tanzania.
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Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in MexicoThe intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus, Dengue virus, and Zika virus clusters in Mexico.
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A novel statistical framework for exploring the population dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populationsUnderstanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species-questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species).
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Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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The Prevalence of HIV Infection in Minority Indigenous Populations of the South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysisA random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of HIV infection within minority indigenous populations of the South-East Asia (SEAR) and Western Pacific Regions (WPR). Sub-group analyses were conducted, and the sources of heterogeneity explored through meta-regression. The majority of studies were undertaken in high HIV risk subpopulations.
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Trends in treatment-seeking for fever in children under five years old in 151 countries from 1990 to 2020Access to medical treatment for fever is essential to prevent morbidity and mortality in individuals and to prevent transmission of communicable febrile illness in communities. Quantification of the rates at which treatment is accessed is critical for health system planning and a prerequisite for disease burden estimates.
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Geospatial joint modeling of vector and parasite serology to microstratify malaria transmissionThe World Health Organization identifies a strong surveillance system for malaria and its mosquito vector as an essential pillar of the malaria elimination agenda. Anopheles salivary antibodies are emerging biomarkers of exposure to mosquito bites that potentially overcome sensitivity and logistical constraints of traditional entomological surveys.