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Research

Individual variation in vaccine immune response can produce bimodal distributions of protection

The ability for vaccines to protect against infectious diseases varies among individuals, but computational models employed to inform policy typically do not account for this variation. Here we examine this issue: we implement a model of vaccine efficacy developed in the context of SARS-CoV-2 in order to evaluate the general implications of modelling correlates of protection on the individual level.

Research

Cholera risk in Lusaka: A geospatial analysis to inform improved water and sanitation provision

Urbanization combined with climate change are exacerbating water scarcity for an increasing number of the world’s emerging cities. Water and sanitation infrastructure, which in the first place was largely built to cater only to a small subsector of developing city populations, is increasingly coming under excessive strain.

Research

Socio-demographic correlates of unhealthy lifestyle in Ethiopia: a secondary analysis of a national survey

Multiple lifestyle risk factors exhibit a stronger association with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) compared to a single factor, emphasizing the necessity of considering them collectively. By integrating these major lifestyle risk factors, we can identify individuals with an overall unhealthy lifestyle, which facilitates the provision of targeted interventions for those at significant risk of NCDs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the socio-demographic correlates of unhealthy lifestyles among adolescents and adults in Ethiopia.

Research

Gaussian random fields: with and without covariances

We begin with isotropic Gaussian random fields, and show how the Bochner-Godement theorem gives a natural way to describe their covariance structure. We continue with a study of Matérn processes on Euclidean space, spheres, manifolds and graphs, using Bessel potentials and stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs).

Research

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico

The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus, Dengue virus, and Zika virus clusters in Mexico.

Research

A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV 2 during periods of high, low, and zero case incidence

Against a backdrop ofwidespread global transmission, a number of countries have successfully brought large outbreaks of COVID-19 under control and maintained near-elimination status. A key element of epidemic response is the tracking of disease transmissibility in near real-time. During major out-breaks, the effective reproduction number can be estimated froma time-series of case, hospitalisation or death counts. In low or zero incidence settings, knowing the potential for the virus to spread is a response priority.

News & Events

Sophisticated new modelling suggests keeping mask mandate could prevent 147,000 COVID-19 cases

WA’s current Omicron COVID-19 outbreak could jump by 147,000 cases if mask mandates are abandoned before the Easter long weekend, according to sophisticated new modelling.

News & Events

New study identifies African ‘hotspot’ for highly infectious diseases

A regional corner of Africa is a hotspot for cases of HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, prompting researchers to call for targeted health support rather than a national response.

Geospatial Health and Development

Our Geospatial Health and Development Team uses cutting-edge technologies to better understand how and why the health and wellbeing of children varies from place to place. We develop innovative geospatial methods that can harness large, complex datasets to pinpoint hotspots of elevated risk, evaluate change through time, and explore underlying drivers.