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Research

Mapping BCG vaccination coverage in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019

The Bacille-Calmette–Guerin (BCG) vaccination remains the primary strategy to prevent severe disseminated TB in young children, particularly in high TB-burden countries such as Ethiopia. Accurate knowledge of vaccination coverage in small geographical areas is critically important to developing targeted immunization campaigns. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distributions and ecological level determinants of BCG vaccination coverage in Ethiopia.

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Comparative assessment of the human and animal health surveillance systems in Tanzania: Opportunities for an integrated one health surveillance platform

Globally, there have been calls for an integrated zoonotic disease surveillance system. This study aimed to assess human and animal health surveillance systems to identify opportunities for One Health surveillance platform in Tanzania.

Research

Geospatial modelling for malaria risk stratification and intervention targeting for low-endemic countries

Ewan Punam Susan Tasmin Cameron Amratia Rumisha Symons BSc PhD PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Director of Malaria Risk Stratification Honorary Research

Research

A Maximum Entropy Model of the Distribution of Dengue Serotype in Mexico

Pathogen strain diversity is an important driver of the trajectory of epidemics. The role of bioclimatic factors on the spatial distribution of dengue virus serotypes has, however, not been previously studied. Hence, we developed municipality-scale environmental suitability maps for the four dengue virus serotypes using maximum entropy modeling.

Research

Patterns and trends of in-hospital mortality due to non-communicable diseases and injuries in Tanzania, 2006–2015

Globally, non-communicable diseases (NCD) kill about 40 million people annually, with about three-quarters of the deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries. This study was carried out to determine the patterns, trends, and causes of in-hospital non-communicable disease (NCD) and injury deaths in Tanzania from 2006-2015.

Research

Spatial distribution of rotavirus immunization coverage in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis using the Bayesian approach

Rotavirus causes substantial morbidity and mortality every year, particularly among under-five children. Despite Rotavirus immunization preventing severe diarrheal disease in children, the vaccination coverage remains inadequate in many African countries including Ethiopia.

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The Centres for Disease Control light trap and the human decoy trap compared to the human landing catch for measuring Anopheles biting in rural Tanzania

Vector mosquito biting intensity is an important measure to understand malaria transmission. Human landing catch (HLC) is an effective but labour-intensive, expensive, and potentially hazardous entomological surveillance tool. The Centres for Disease Control light trap (CDC-LT) and the human decoy trap (HDT) are exposure-free alternatives.

Research

Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections

Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures.

Research

Mapping the endemicity and seasonality of clinical malaria for intervention targeting in Haiti using routine case data

Towards the goal of malaria elimination on Hispaniola, the National Malaria Control Program of Haiti and its international partner organisations are conducting a campaign of interventions targeted to high-risk communities prioritised through evidence-based planning. Here we present a key piece of this planning: an up-to-date, fine-scale endemicity map and seasonality profile for Haiti informed by monthly case counts.

Research

Malaria treatment for prevention: a modelling study of the impact of routine case management on malaria prevalence and burden

Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence.