Intervention and Infectious Disease Modelling

The Intervention and Infectious Disease Modelling research group develops new mathematical models and methodology applied to diseases with highly complex dynamics.

Led by Professor Melissa Penny, the group works to understand how pathogen, host and intervention dynamics combine to prevent disease progression and transmission and to address contemporary issues in infectious diseases and global health.

Working in the areas of malaria and respiratory viruses and other infectious diseases, the group supported understandings and interventions against SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using Models to Understand Diseases and how to intervene

The Intervention and Infectious Disease Modelling group are an interdisciplinary team of researchers that develops and uses models to understand parasitic and viral diseases and inform public health decision-making.

We design data, biology, and epidemiologically-informed mathematical models covering all aspects of disease and treatment dynamics — within-host immune and infection; population transmission; parasite and vector life cycles; health systems access and interventions; as well as detailed interactions with pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

The group use data analysis, and modelling and simulation, to examine complex interactions between infectious diseases, individuals, and populations, medical interventions, and health systems. They apply novel statistical and machine-learning approaches to calibrate and use complex disease models.

They use these models to understand disease progression, pathogenesis and disease transmission, and to estimate impacts of existing and novel health interventions in individuals or at the population level, in the contexts of real-world health systems. They evaluate possible intervention strategies and resource allocation strategies to achieve effective and equitable impact on infectious diseases, including for emerging diseases.

With collaboration at the heart, they work closely with other research institutions in Switzerland and abroad, as well as global health donors and public health policy stakeholders.

The group are key developers of the open-source disease models OpenMalaria and OpenCOVID. OpenMalaria is widely used by international research teams as the premier population-scale model for malaria disease, to help guide medical and non-medical malaria treatments for maximum health impact.

Generating Evidence for Decision-Making and development of new interventions

Their main aim is to generate evidence for decision-making along the whole pathway of new intervention development against infectious diseases — from preclinical to clinical testing, and at implementation in real populations and health systems, including for pandemic responses and preparedness.

The model-based evidence supports drug, vaccine, monoclonal antibodies, and other intervention development through selection of candidate interventions with optimal properties. Overall, the group aims o increase quantitative evidence to support develop and use of impactful interventions, to eliminate, prevent and treat infectious diseases.

Through close relationships with global health stakeholders, our model-based evidence supports selection of optimal deployment strategies to achieve disease burden reduction targets, to increase prevention, or to support disease elimination approaches.